Before we get into the Tempe Real Estate Market Report for August 2021, I have a commentary written by Tina Tamboer. Tina is the Senior Housing Analyst with the Cromford report. She was nice enough to let us use her summary of the Greater Phoenix Metro area as a backdrop for what is happening in Tempe this month. Here is her commentary…
?️ The Greater Phoenix Metro Summary Analysis Real Estate Market Report
Supply Up 42% Since May, Price Reductions Up 131%
Affordability Dips Below Normal to 56%
? For Buyers:
There is a little relief ahead for buyers in Greater Phoenix. Supply continues to rise in price points between $300K-$1.5M and buyer demand has settled into a normal seasonal cooldown that is expected to last through the end of the year. What this means for buyers is the 2nd half of 2021 so far has more choice and less competition.
There are two things going on right now in the market. The first is a non-seasonal increase in supply, fueled by a high number of new listings hitting the market every week. Typically August is the low point of the summer season for supply. However this year it is the high point and continuing to rise, up 42% since May. That’s good news for buyers as it provides more choice.
The second is a seasonal decline in buyer activity. Typically buyer demand shoots up in the first half of the year, peaking around May, then it gradually declines in the 2nd half of the year. Last year the market saw the opposite due to the pandemic, supply dropped when it was supposed to rise and rose when it was supposed to drop. The return to a normal seasonal rhythm in 2021 means that there may be slightly less competition from other buyers in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
This doesn’t mean the housing market has gone cold; it has simply made it a little more tolerable to navigate. To put it in numbers, on April 8th, there were 12,862 listings under contract and only 4,177 active. Today on August 9th, there are 11,743 under contract and 7,166 active. Add a recent decline in interest rates keeping payments down and exhausted buyers have a little more room to breathe.
? For Sellers:
The Home Opportunity Index (HOI), published by the National Association of Home Builders every quarter, measures housing affordability based on the median family income per metro area. Last quarter, the HOI for Greater Phoenix fell to 56 (we predicted it would be 57 based on preliminary MLS data). This is below the normal range for the Phoenix metro area of 60-75. What does this mean? This means that a household making the median family income of $79,000 per year could technically afford 56% of what was sold in the 2nd Quarter of 2021. The last time the HOI dipped below 60 was in the 4th Quarter of 2018 when it hit 57.
The market responded with a drop in annual appreciation from 10% to just 4% within 3 months. Since June of this year, annual appreciation of the monthly median sales price has declined from 32% to 28%. As affordability declines, it’s reasonable to expect the market will begin to resist the prices sellers initially ask for their homes. In other words, there will be fewer buyers able to bear dramatic monthly increases in home costs like those seen over the past year.
Sales Over Asking Price
Meanwhile, exuberant sellers continue to list their homes at prices that defy comparable sales. As these homes sit for an extra day or two on the market without an accepted contract, weekly price reductions have risen 131% since May with a median price drop of $14,000. Typically, the median price reduction is $5,000. Of course, there are still properties closing over the asking price. However, those contracts were accepted approximately 1-1.5 months ago when the market was hotter than it is now. The percentage of sales over asking price has declined from 60% to 55% over the past two months, with the median amount over list price declining as well from $20,000 to $15,000. We expect this trend to continue.
The commentary was written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2021 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
Below you will find the statistical breakdown and more for the Tempe area Real Estate Market Report July 2021.
? Below is a snapshot of Tempe’s Real Estate Market Statistics for July 2021
?️ What are the Average Temperatures in Phoenix?
Phoenix’s coldest month is January when the average temperature overnight is 43.4°F. In July, the warmest month, the average day time temperature rises to 104.2°F. If you would like to see specific homes as they come on the market, click here to get email updates.
? A look at Tempe’s current Sales Price. Real Estate Market Report for August 2021
In July, Tempe’s Median Sales Price was $421,580 up from last month’s $415,000 and the prior months’ $425,000, $389,450 and $367,000. As inventory levels remain at unheard of low levels, there has been continued pressure on the sales price as folks need to bid above the listing price to be the winning bid on the house.
❓ What does this mean if you are a Buyer or a Seller?
Real Estate Market Report
As the chart above shows the Phoenix housing market Inventory remains at historic low levels. Buyers should be prepared to jump on any listing that fits their needs. With inventory at these lows, make sure you make your offer as clean as possible (no contingencies). Based on Tina’s comments above, you may have to pay over the list price to get the deal.
Sellers should expect multiple offers due to this low inventory level. We are seeing many more multiple offers as inventory drops. Know the market value of your home. When you start getting offers above list price and potential market price, be cognizant of a potential appraisal issue or look for offers with appraisal waivers/contingencies.
If you would like to see specific homes as they come on the market, click here to get email updates.
?️ What is the annual rainfall in Phoenix?
The driest month in Phoenix is June with 0.09 inches of precipitation, and with 1.07 inches March is the wettest month.
?️ Homes For Sale in Tempe AZ
Below are Homes that have come on the market in the last 7 Days around the Median price range. Also below the pictures, you will see a Chart of all the Tempe homes by price and Type: Below are all the homes available in the city of Tempe by Dollar amount and type:
Contact the Shirley Coomer Group at Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living